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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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