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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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