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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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