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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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