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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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