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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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