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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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