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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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