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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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