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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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