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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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