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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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