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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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