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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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