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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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