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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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