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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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