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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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