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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
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Showing 1036 to 1040 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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