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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
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Showing 1031 to 1035 news of total 6871 |
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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