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Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
 It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the start of the year, it was one of the favorite topics amongst participants in the shipping industry how challenging 2020 would be. However, no one could have guessed the level of this challenge. With some certainty, we can argue that Covid-19 spread will be a strong test, from a social, as well as an economical perspective. Instead of making further assumptions as to how the virus outbreak may or may not affect different market aspects, we could take things from a different angle and view hoping to better understand how different mechanisms are currently reacting to this unique situation, Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research said in his latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the global economic slowdown seems to be the inevitable outcome, emphatically evident from the recent trends being portrayed in global markets. Beyond this, the real question is as to how big this step back will eventually be. Week over week all forecasts regarding economic development and macroeconomic trends seem very prone to downward revisions, given that the virus spread seems to be more dynamic and unpredictable as time goes by. A glimpse of optimism was noted during the past weeks, given the decreasing rate of new cases testing positive to the COVID-19 virus in China. However, witnessing the hefty growth in cases reported in Italy (and across Europe), a strong wave of doubt and uncertainty has firmly hit the general economic environment. The discussions surrounding a wider quantitative easing will certainly help stabilize financial markets, a tool that has helped in many cases of severe downward pressure in the past. Regardless though of the effort made by central institutions and given the unpredictable time duration of this tail risk, it will eventually be a unique test as to the credit risks present in the financial industry. Furthermore, witnessing the steep collapse of more than 30% in oil price, the scene has become even more volatile. Theoretically, "cheap" oil would be a boost for growth and consumer spending power. However, when overall demand is, to say the least, fragile, in what way this "abundant" supply could affect the real economy seems rather questionable.
How does all the above translate over to the shipping industry? Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research says, certainly, the anticipation of a major step back in economic growth (which means respectively a significant slowdown in seaborne trade), can't be under any case be considered a "good" sign. A somehow opposing argument to this is the fact that dry FFA long-term contracts have increased since the beginning of the year. Maybe, this is just an optimistic opinion shared by a small minority, or maybe the fundamentals are strong, and this periodical affect is unrelated to the macro economical prospect of the dry bulk sector.
In any case, given the mixed macroeconomic environment, it would be wise to focus for the time being on the near-term picture noted in the dry bulk sector. The past couple of weeks the market seems to be in a state of transition, seemingly in a process of recovering from a freight market bottom (especially for the medium size segments – Panamaxes and Supramaxes). Time is the key variable here. As the virus spread doesn't seem to be yet under check, sentiment will turn ever more negative, while extra pressure will be applied to cash reserves and cash flows as well as to daily operating activities. On the other hand, the window of a steeper upward potential is growing, given the higher slippage rate of cargo volumes that potentially could take shape. This may well mean that we could see exaggerated returns take place from the early onset of the summer period.
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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