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Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
 It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the start of the year, it was one of the favorite topics amongst participants in the shipping industry how challenging 2020 would be. However, no one could have guessed the level of this challenge. With some certainty, we can argue that Covid-19 spread will be a strong test, from a social, as well as an economical perspective. Instead of making further assumptions as to how the virus outbreak may or may not affect different market aspects, we could take things from a different angle and view hoping to better understand how different mechanisms are currently reacting to this unique situation, Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research said in his latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the global economic slowdown seems to be the inevitable outcome, emphatically evident from the recent trends being portrayed in global markets. Beyond this, the real question is as to how big this step back will eventually be. Week over week all forecasts regarding economic development and macroeconomic trends seem very prone to downward revisions, given that the virus spread seems to be more dynamic and unpredictable as time goes by. A glimpse of optimism was noted during the past weeks, given the decreasing rate of new cases testing positive to the COVID-19 virus in China. However, witnessing the hefty growth in cases reported in Italy (and across Europe), a strong wave of doubt and uncertainty has firmly hit the general economic environment. The discussions surrounding a wider quantitative easing will certainly help stabilize financial markets, a tool that has helped in many cases of severe downward pressure in the past. Regardless though of the effort made by central institutions and given the unpredictable time duration of this tail risk, it will eventually be a unique test as to the credit risks present in the financial industry. Furthermore, witnessing the steep collapse of more than 30% in oil price, the scene has become even more volatile. Theoretically, "cheap" oil would be a boost for growth and consumer spending power. However, when overall demand is, to say the least, fragile, in what way this "abundant" supply could affect the real economy seems rather questionable.
How does all the above translate over to the shipping industry? Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research says, certainly, the anticipation of a major step back in economic growth (which means respectively a significant slowdown in seaborne trade), can't be under any case be considered a "good" sign. A somehow opposing argument to this is the fact that dry FFA long-term contracts have increased since the beginning of the year. Maybe, this is just an optimistic opinion shared by a small minority, or maybe the fundamentals are strong, and this periodical affect is unrelated to the macro economical prospect of the dry bulk sector.
In any case, given the mixed macroeconomic environment, it would be wise to focus for the time being on the near-term picture noted in the dry bulk sector. The past couple of weeks the market seems to be in a state of transition, seemingly in a process of recovering from a freight market bottom (especially for the medium size segments – Panamaxes and Supramaxes). Time is the key variable here. As the virus spread doesn't seem to be yet under check, sentiment will turn ever more negative, while extra pressure will be applied to cash reserves and cash flows as well as to daily operating activities. On the other hand, the window of a steeper upward potential is growing, given the higher slippage rate of cargo volumes that potentially could take shape. This may well mean that we could see exaggerated returns take place from the early onset of the summer period.
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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