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Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
 It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the start of the year, it was one of the favorite topics amongst participants in the shipping industry how challenging 2020 would be. However, no one could have guessed the level of this challenge. With some certainty, we can argue that Covid-19 spread will be a strong test, from a social, as well as an economical perspective. Instead of making further assumptions as to how the virus outbreak may or may not affect different market aspects, we could take things from a different angle and view hoping to better understand how different mechanisms are currently reacting to this unique situation, Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research said in his latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the global economic slowdown seems to be the inevitable outcome, emphatically evident from the recent trends being portrayed in global markets. Beyond this, the real question is as to how big this step back will eventually be. Week over week all forecasts regarding economic development and macroeconomic trends seem very prone to downward revisions, given that the virus spread seems to be more dynamic and unpredictable as time goes by. A glimpse of optimism was noted during the past weeks, given the decreasing rate of new cases testing positive to the COVID-19 virus in China. However, witnessing the hefty growth in cases reported in Italy (and across Europe), a strong wave of doubt and uncertainty has firmly hit the general economic environment. The discussions surrounding a wider quantitative easing will certainly help stabilize financial markets, a tool that has helped in many cases of severe downward pressure in the past. Regardless though of the effort made by central institutions and given the unpredictable time duration of this tail risk, it will eventually be a unique test as to the credit risks present in the financial industry. Furthermore, witnessing the steep collapse of more than 30% in oil price, the scene has become even more volatile. Theoretically, "cheap" oil would be a boost for growth and consumer spending power. However, when overall demand is, to say the least, fragile, in what way this "abundant" supply could affect the real economy seems rather questionable.
How does all the above translate over to the shipping industry? Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research says, certainly, the anticipation of a major step back in economic growth (which means respectively a significant slowdown in seaborne trade), can't be under any case be considered a "good" sign. A somehow opposing argument to this is the fact that dry FFA long-term contracts have increased since the beginning of the year. Maybe, this is just an optimistic opinion shared by a small minority, or maybe the fundamentals are strong, and this periodical affect is unrelated to the macro economical prospect of the dry bulk sector.
In any case, given the mixed macroeconomic environment, it would be wise to focus for the time being on the near-term picture noted in the dry bulk sector. The past couple of weeks the market seems to be in a state of transition, seemingly in a process of recovering from a freight market bottom (especially for the medium size segments – Panamaxes and Supramaxes). Time is the key variable here. As the virus spread doesn't seem to be yet under check, sentiment will turn ever more negative, while extra pressure will be applied to cash reserves and cash flows as well as to daily operating activities. On the other hand, the window of a steeper upward potential is growing, given the higher slippage rate of cargo volumes that potentially could take shape. This may well mean that we could see exaggerated returns take place from the early onset of the summer period.
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Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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