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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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