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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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