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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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