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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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