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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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