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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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