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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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