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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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