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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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