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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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