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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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