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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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