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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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