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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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