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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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