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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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