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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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