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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
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