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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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