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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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