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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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