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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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