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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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