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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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