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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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