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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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