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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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