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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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