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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
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Showing 1341 to 1345 news of total 6871 |
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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