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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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