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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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Showing 1416 to 1420 news of total 6871 |
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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